DAI’s quarterly Letter to Clients provides a concise perspective on current energy industry events. It’s meant to be thought-provoking, and illustrative of the critical eye DAI brings to client engagements. We seek to select topics that reflect issues of current client interest, as well as areas that examine recent DAI staff research.

v.1 PDF

• Change is among us: The future of nuclear and coal-fired generators

v.2 PDF

• Conference Update

v.3 PDF

• Conference Update

v.4 PDF

• Conference Update

2nd Half PDF

• Solar PV and the changing model of distributed generation
• Mapping changing natural gas flows to power market regions

1st Half PDF

• Putting declining demand growth projections in a broader context
• The aging of the generator fleet and the signal for new investment

4th quarter PDF

• Assessing industry responses to the 2014 “polar vortex” and their impact this winter
• Levelized costs are falling for 3 major generation types…and for 3 different reasons

3rd quarter PDF

• The impact of allowing natural gas exports on power markets
• Understanding how the residential PV value proposition is changing

2nd quarter PDF

• Evaluating the impact of the EPA’s new Clean Power Plan
• Exploring how useful life estimates can increase as a plant ages

1st quarter PDF

• Are demand response and energy efficiency the end of growth?
• The decline in power sector carbon emissions absent federal legislation

4th quarter PDF

• Understanding shifting energy flows in the Appalachian region
• Falling PV costs and the future decision to replace or repower

3rd quarter PDF

• On the complexity of pursuing generator diversity in deregulated markets
• Residential solar “rooftop share” in California and remaining potential growth

2nd quarter PDF

• Exploring the implications of the recent RPM auction results
• The consequences for California of the SONGS retirement

1st quarter PDF

• Examining the effects of rapidly declining PV equipment prices
• Illustrating the growing shortfall in deliverable capacity

4th quarter PDF

• Exploring the impact of low natural gas prices on energy market dynamics
• Monetary policy and “global vs local” commodity pricing

3rd quarter PDF

• The impact of the NRC’s Waste Confidence decision on relicensing
• Regulatory uncertainty as a disincentive to investment

2nd quarter PDF

• Exploring the growing spread between regulated returns and Treasury rates
• Tracking the relative popularity of wind power and shale gas

1st quarter PDF

• The impact of EPA’s CO2 policy on non-carbon emitting capacity
• The prospects for new coal in the aftermath of the EPA’s proposed CO2 policy

4th quarter PDF

• Investigating coal plant retirement estimates in light of EPA policy
• The state of global carbon markets in the continuing absence of a global policy

3rd quarter PDF

• Evaluating the EPA’s evolving regulation of coal-fired power
• Past and future growth of renewable power in RPS states

2nd quarter PDF

• Examining the impact of growing estimates of natural gas reserves
• Regional equity in federal incentives for renewable energy projects

1st quarter PDF

• Evaluating the nuclear landscape in the aftermath of the Japanese earthquake
• The potential impact of nuclear plant shut-downs by region

4th quarter PDF

• Confronting water use regulation
• Reducing CO2 at the expense of increasing water consumption

3rd quarter PDF

• EPA’s next generation of environmental regulation
• The perilous history of natural gas price forecasting

2nd quarter PDF

• Low energy prices and conflicting price signals
• Whither CO2? The joint consequences of coal and nuclear retirements

1st quarter PDF

• QFs confront end-of-life issues
• Renewable penetration and curtailment by price

4th quarter PDF

• Government intervention and incentive distortion
• Solar power production forecasting uncertainty

3rd quarter PDF

• Renewable loan guarantees
• Predicting conflict in property tax assessments

2nd quarter PDF

• Nuclear loan guarantees
• Wind projects: PTC or ITC?

1st quarter PDF

• Commodity prices pre- and post-recession
• Unconventional natural gas and future demand

4th quarter PDF

• Short-term vs. long-term energy policy
• Oil and alternative energy: 1970s redux?

3rd quarter PDF

• Revisiting risk: fear vs. fundamentals
• Capacity planning and the 2008 Presidential election

2nd quarter PDF

• Capacity markets and power market design
• The impact of a carbon tax on capacity values

1st quarter PDF

• The future of coal in the face of CO2 regulation
• The challenges of replacing coal-fired capacity

4th quarter PDF

• The prospects for solar power
• Federal and state incentives for PV projects

3rd quarter PDF

• Questions emerge about global warming
• Renewable capacity growth in historical perspective

2nd quarter PDF

• Rising construction costs
• Value attribution in wind projects

1st quarter PDF

• Federal greenhouse gas standards
• Is risk too cheap?

Steve Dean

STEVE DEAN, ASA, P.E.

Managing Principal

“My goal is to help you navigate the ever-changing world of energy.”